NEWS – A new study highlights that human-induced climate change may have elevated Earth’s average temperature by approximately 1.5°C by the end of 2023 compared to pre-1700s levels. The study Published in Nature Geosciences by researchers Andrew Jarvis and Piers Forster from Lancaster University, UK.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Key Findings:
  • Human-driven warming reached around 1.49°C in 2023.
  • October 2024 recorded a temperature rise of 1.53°C above pre-1700s levels.

Climate Summit Context and Urgent Goals

• The study’s release aligns with the UN Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.
• Objective: Nations aim to create a new climate finance mechanism to combat the severe consequences of climate change.

WMO’s Red Alert: 2024 on Track for Record Highs

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a red alert, warning that 2024 could set a new record as the warmest year.
• The 2015-2024 decade is likely to be the hottest in recorded history

Methods Used for Temperature Assessment

• The study employed Antarctic ice core data spanning the last two millennia to evaluate human-induced warming.
• Climate Benchmark Comparison:
  • When assessed against the commonly used 1850–1900 baseline, warming stands slightly lower but is still trending toward the 1.5°C limit.
  • In 2023, warming against this benchmark was estimated at 1.31°C, rising to 1.35°C currently.

Implications for Paris Agreement Targets

• The 2015 Paris Accord targets a temperature rise limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, using 1850-1900 as the baseline.
• Researchers predict that the 1.5°C threshold may be breached within the next decade if current trends continue.

Researchers’ Recommendations

• Scientists stress the importance of global cooperation to mitigate the impacts of surpassing the 1.5°C limit.
• Focus on Climate Resilience:
  • Building climate resilience within societies is essential to provide a buffer against climate change impacts.
  • Urgency emphasized: “The physics of climate change is not waiting for geopolitics.”

Policy Implications

• The findings underscore the need for immediate, concerted action by world leaders to halt further warming.
• Ensuring nations meet their climate commitments could help delay and minimize the overshoot beyond the 1.5°C target.