NEWS – India Likely to Receive Above-Normal Monsoon: IMD

HIGHLIGHTS

Nationwide Monsoon Outlook

• India is expected to receive 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall.
• The LPA is calculated at 87 cm (based on 1971–2020 data).
• IMD’s forecast carries a model error margin of ±5%.
• There’s a strong probability of monsoon being “above normal” or “excess”.

Regional Rainfall Patterns

• Areas Expecting Copious Rain
  • North Karnataka
  • Marathwada
  • Rayalaseema
  • North Andhra Pradesh
  • Bastar region (Chhattisgarh)
• Areas Likely to Receive Deficient Rain
  • Tamil Nadu
  • Ladakh
  • North-East India
  • Eastern Bihar and parts of North Bengal

Monsoon’s Economic Significance

• Critical for India’s $3.5 trillion agriculture-driven economy.
• Key crops dependent on monsoon:
  • Paddy
  • Pulses
  • Oilseeds
  • Jute

Favourable Climate Conditions

• Neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions expected throughout the season.
• Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will also support good rainfall.
• Lower snow cover over Eurasia (Dec 2024–Mar 2025) is a positive indicator for monsoon.

Changing Trends in Rainfall Patterns

• North-East India is witnessing a decade-long trend of reduced rainfall.
• Thar Desert (Rajasthan) is receiving relatively increased precipitation.
• Causes are not fully understood and research is ongoing, according to Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Next Steps by IMD

• A seasonal forecast update is expected by end of May.
• Monsoon onset forecast to be released by mid-May.