NEWS – Azim Premji University unveils new climate data set for India

KEY FINDINGS FROM THE REPORT

Temperature Projections

• Annual Maximum Temperature:
  • Increase of 1.5°C by 2057 under the ‘middle-of-the-road’ emission scenario (SSP2-4.5).
  • The same temperature rise will occur a decade earlier, by 2047, under the ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario (SSP5-8.5).
• Summer Maximum Temperature:
  • Expected increase of 1.5°C by 2043 (SSP2-4.5).
  • The rise is projected to happen earlier, by 2041, under SSP5-8.5.
• District-Level Impact:
  • Low Emission Scenario (SSP2-4.5):
    • 196 districts will see a 1°C increase in summer maximum temperatures.
    • 70 districts will experience a 1°C rise in annual maximum temperatures.
    • Leh is projected to experience the highest change at 1.6°C for both summer and annual maximum temperatures.
  • High Emission Scenario (SSP5-8.5):
    • 249 districts will see an annual temperature rise of 1°C or more.
    • 16 districts, mainly in the Himalayan States, will face an annual rise of 1.5°C or more, with Leh experiencing the highest at 1.8°C.

Changes in Precipitation Patterns (2021-2040)

• Regional Variations:
  • Western India will see a significant increase in precipitation compared to the eastern and north-eastern regions.
  • Arid States (Gujarat and Rajasthan):
    • Annual precipitation increase ranges:
      • 20-40% under SSP2-4.5.
      • 20-50% under SSP5-8.5.

Extreme Weather Indicators

• Wet Bulb Temperature:
  • 24-25 districts across coastal States and eastern Himalayas will experience a summer wet bulb temperature of more than 31°C, posing severe risks to human health.

Broader Implications

• Emissions Scenarios:
  • SSP2-4.5 assumes moderate emissions reductions and adaptations.
  • SSP5-8.5 predicts heavy reliance on fossil fuels, leading to severe climate impacts.