NEWS – Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report on  Investments in Nuclear Arsenals released

HIGHLIGHTS

• Focus: Continued modernization and increase in operational nuclear warheads
• Key Finding: Rising global nuclear weapons spending, especially by the US

Nuclear Weapons Modernization

• Nine Nuclear-Armed Nations:
  • Countries continue to modernize their arsenals.
  • Increasing reliance on nuclear weapons for deterrence.
• SIPRI Director’s Statement:
  • Despite dismantling Cold War-era weapons, operational nuclear warheads are increasing.
  • Expected acceleration of this trend is concerning.

Recent Developments

• Russia and Belarus:
  • Launched a second phase of exercises for deploying tactical nuclear weapons.
  • Analysts view this as a move to deter Western support for Ukraine.

Global Nuclear Spending

• ICAN Report:
  • Total Spending (2023): $91.4 billion on nuclear weapons programs.
  • Increase: $10.7 billion more than in 2022.
  • Major Contributors:
    • United States: $51.5 billion (80% of the increase)
    • China: $11.8 billion
    • Russia: $8.3 billion
  • ICAN: Nobel Peace Prize winner (2017)

Operational Warheads

• High Operational Alert Warheads:
  • Total: 2,100 deployed warheads on ballistic missiles.
  • Primarily in: Russia and the United States.
  • New Entrant: China believed to have warheads on high operational alert for the first time.
• Stockpile Stability:
  • Russia and the US hold almost 90% of all nuclear weapons.
  • Russia deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces in 2023.

Transparency and Treaties

• Decline in Transparency:
  • Reduced transparency in nuclear forces following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Nuclear-Sharing Debates:
  • Increasing importance in global discussions.
• Strategic Stability Dialogue:
  • Washington suspended talks with Russia.
  • Moscow suspended participation in the New START nuclear treaty

Global Stockpile Data

• Total Warheads:
  • Estimated at 12,121 in January 2024.
  • About 9,585 are in military stockpiles for potential use.
• Deployed Warheads:
  • 3,904 warheads deployed with missiles and aircraft.
  • 2,100 in a state of high operational alert, primarily in the US and Russia, with China joining.

Country-Specific Updates

• United States and Russia:
  • Possess nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons.
  • Transparency has declined post-Ukraine invasion.
  • Both have over 1,200 retired warheads being dismantled.
• China:
  • Arsenal increased from 410 to 500 warheads from January 2023 to January 2024.
  • Rapid expansion; expected to rival US and Russia’s ICBMs by decade’s end, but overall stockpile remains smaller.
• North Korea:
  • Estimated 50 warheads, with potential to reach 90.
  • Conducted new missile tests and developed land-attack cruise missiles.
  • Emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons raises conflict-use concerns.

Diplomatic and Strategic Concerns

• Nuclear Diplomacy:
  • Wars in Ukraine and Gaza have weakened global nuclear diplomacy.
  • Russia suspended New START Treaty participation, affecting US data sharing.
  • Ongoing nuclear threats and tactical drills by Russia near Ukraine.
• Middle East Tensions:
  • The Iran-US agreement in June 2023 temporarily eased tensions.
  • The Israel-Hamas war disrupted regional diplomatic efforts, affecting the Middle East nuclear-free zone conference.

India’s Nuclear Developments

• Nuclear Triad Enhancement:
  • Strengthening the undersea leg of its nuclear triad
  • Developing long-range missiles
• Submarine Fleet:
  • Third SSBN:
    • Launched in November 2021
    • Fourth SSBN under construction, expected launch in 2024
    • Significantly larger than the first two, approximately 20 meters longer as per satellite imagery
  • Second SSBN (Arighat):
    • Launched in November 2017
    • Underwent advanced sea trials in 2021-22
    • Commissioning delayed, expected in 2024