Introduction

• Paris Agreement: Keep warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
• Temporary 1.5°C overshoot is increasingly likely due to inadequate emission cuts.

Why Overshoot is Dangerous

• Coral reef collapse and biodiversity loss.
• Glacier melt → water insecurity.
• Sea-level rise → coastal flooding and displacement.
• Food insecurity and livelihood losses.
• Greater risk of climate tipping points and adaptation costs.

Overshoot–Peak–Decline

• Overshoot: Temperature temporarily exceeds 1.5°C.
• Peak: Limit warming at the lowest possible level.
• Decline: Bring temperatures back towards 1.5°C.
• Aim: “As small and short as possible.”

Key Measures

• Rapid decarbonisation and renewable energy expansion.
• Methane reduction for near-term warming control.
• Carbon removal: reforestation, ecosystem restoration and direct air capture.
• Strengthen climate adaptation and resilience.

Conclusion

• Overshoot should be treated as a temporary setback, not a new target.
• Deep emission cuts + methane control + responsible carbon removal are essential for returning towards the 1.5°C pathway.