• Rising sea levels and declining labor productivity due to climate change could significantly reduce India’s GDP by 24.7% by 2070.
• This forecast positions India among the worst affected countries in the Asia-Pacific region, as stated by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Regional Impact on GDP

• Developing Asia-Pacific Forecasts:
  • Overall GDP reduction in the developing Asia-Pacific region is estimated at 17.9% by 2070 under a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
  • This reduction could escalate to 41% by 2100.
• Countries Affected:
  • Bangladesh: 30.5% GDP reduction (most affected)
  • Vietnam: 30.2%
  • Indonesia: 26.8%
  • India: 24.7%
  • Southeast Asia: 23.4%
  • Higher-Income Southeast Asia: 22.0%
  • Pakistan: 21.1%
  • Pacific Islands: 18.6%
  • Philippines: 18.1%

Threats from Climate Change

• Coastal Inundation:
  • Up to 300 million people in the Asia-Pacific region could be at risk due to rising sea levels.
  • Trillions of dollars worth of coastal assets may be damaged annually by 2070.
• Concentration of Impacts:
  • The losses will predominantly affect lower-income and fragile economies, particularly those with large coastal populations.
  • Vulnerable and impoverished communities are expected to bear the brunt of these impacts.

Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Developing Asia-Pacific region accounted for about 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2021.
• Factors contributing to emissions increase:
  • Rising domestic consumption.
  • Growing energy demand.
  • Production for advanced economies.
• China: responsible for two-thirds of the increase.
• South Asia: contributed 19.3%.
• Southeast Asia: contributed 15.4%.

Extreme Weather Events

• Climate change is exacerbating the severity of tropical storms, heatwaves, and floods in the region, leading to significant economic challenges and human suffering.
• Predicted Increases in Weather Events:
  • Intense and more variable rainfall, leading to more landslides and floods.
  • Increased landslide risk in mountainous regions, particularly along the India-China border (30%–70% increase under 4.7°C of global warming).
  • Doubling of destructive power from typhoons and cyclones.
  • Increased flood losses due to concentrated rainfall and glacial melt.

Impact on Climate-Dependent Sectors

• Sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are expected to see diminished output due to climate impacts.

Mitigation Strategies

• The region has opportunities to transition to renewable energy to achieve net-zero goals.
• Development of domestic and international carbon markets can facilitate cost-effective climate action.

Investment Needs

• Annual investment requirements for regional countries to adapt to global warming are estimated between $102 billion to $431 billion.
• This investment need far exceeds the $34 billion tracked in adaptation finance in the region for 2021–2022.

Conclusion

Urgent and coordinated climate action is essential to mitigate the devastating impacts of climate change and address the economic challenges posed to vulnerable populations and economies in the Asia-Pacific region.