IMPORTANCE AMID CLIMATE CHALLENGES

• Key Contributions: Punjab and Haryana have been crucial in maintaining India’s food security, especially in years affected by climate phenomena like El Niño.
• Recent Procurement: In the 2023-24 marketing season, these states contributed 75.5% of the total wheat procured for the Central foodgrain pool.
• Procurement Data:
  • Punjab: 12.2 million tonnes (mt)
  • Haryana: 7 mt
  • Combined Share: Highest since 2015-16

HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND TRENDS

• Green Revolution Impact: Initially, Punjab and Haryana supplied over 90% of wheat for government programs.
• Diverse Procurement: The share fell to around 65% by the early 2010s as other states also started contributing significantly.
• Recent Shifts: Climate shocks have again increased the dependency on these two states due to better resilience to weather anomalies.

RECENT WHEAT PROCUREMENT TRENDS

• Bumper Years: In 2019-20 and 2020-21, total wheat procurement reached record levels, with Punjab and Haryana’s share dropping to around 50%.
• Climate Impact: In the past three years, adverse weather conditions have reduced wheat yields in central Indian states, increasing reliance on Punjab and Haryana.

CURRENT SEASON CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES

• Climate Anomalies: An unusually warm November-December affected wheat yields in central India, reducing procurement from states like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
• Resilient States: Punjab and Haryana, with longer winters and appropriate sowing times, managed to maintain their production levels.
• Government Stocks: Wheat stocks were at a critical low, underscoring the importance of the contributions from Punjab and Haryana.

RICE PROCUREMENT DYNAMICS

• Historical Procurement: Traditionally focused in Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
• Diversification: States like Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and UP have become major contributors, reducing the combined share of Punjab and Haryana.
• Current Year: Despite diversification, the share of Punjab and Haryana in rice procurement rose to around 32.9% due to assured irrigation and stable production.

POLICY AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

• National Food Security Act (NFSA): Guarantees 5 kg of subsidized grain per month to 813.5 million people, with the current government providing it free since January 2023.
• Continued Necessity: Regardless of future political changes, the procurement needs for NFSA and other welfare schemes will ensure Punjab and Haryana’s ongoing importance.
• Yield Superiority: With significantly higher yields than the national average, these states will remain vital for meeting national food security requirements, even as some land may shift to other crops.