Global Surge in Defence Budgets

The NATO summit in June 2025 marked a significant shift, with member nations pledging to raise defence expenditure to 5% of GDP by 2035 — up from the previous 2% target. This comes amidst growing global instability, including wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and fresh conflicts involving India-Pakistan and Israel-Iran. Military spending globally hit $2.7 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% rise — the highest year-on-year increase since 1988.

Historical Context and Concentration

Military spending peaked during the Cold War, reaching 6.1% of global GDP in 1960. After declining post-1991, it has now resurged to 2.5%. The top five spenders — the U.S., China, Russia, Germany, and India — account for a massive share of the total. NATO nations alone contribute 55% of global defence budgets.

Domestic Trade-offs: Health vs. Defence

Increased militarisation comes at the cost of essential public goods, particularly healthcare and welfare. Studies confirm a crowding-out effect: as military budgets rise, public health funding shrinks, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries. Even Spain, a high-income NATO member, resisted the 5% pledge citing its harmful impact on welfare schemes.

• India’s case is stark:

  • ₹6.81 lakh crore is the defence budget for 2024–25.

  • ₹50,000 crore was additionally sanctioned for emergency purchases after Operation Sindoor.

  • In contrast, Ayushman Bharat’s health allocation was just ₹7,200 crore, covering 58 crore citizens.

India spends 2.3% of GDP on the military, but only 1.84% on health — far below the 2.5% target of its own National Health Policy.

Global Development & the UN Crisis

While militaries thrive, institutions meant for peace and development shrink. The UN’s budget stands at a mere $44 billion — just 1.6% of global military spending. Due to underfunding, it’s now considering a cut to $29 billion.

Former U.S. President Trump’s withdrawal of foreign aid and closure of USAID have further undermined global health efforts. According to The Lancet, USAID programs helped prevent 91 million deaths over 20 years. Their dismantling could cause 14 million additional deaths by 2030, one-third of them children.

 Sustainable Development Goals at Risk

Rising defence expenditure threatens multiple SDGs:

• Health: Just $1/person/year could prevent 7 million non-communicable disease deaths by 2030.

• Poverty Eradication: Ending extreme poverty needs $70 billion/year — a fraction of military budgets.

• Climate Action: Military-industrial operations emit massive carbon. If NATO meets the 5% target, emissions could rise by 200 million tonnes annually — further derailing climate goals amid record heatwaves.

 India’s Policy Dilemma

While national security is paramount, India must avoid over-militarisation at the cost of social infrastructure. As middle-income nations bear disproportionate fiscal burdens during conflicts, India should adopt balanced budgeting, prioritize public health, and support multilateral peace-building instead of an arms race.

 Conclusion: A Costly Path Forward

The rising tide of military spending risks diverting crucial resources from health, education, climate action, and peace. As history shows, arms races do not guarantee peace. True security lies in strengthening human development — not just stockpiling weapons.