Published on: March 15, 2022




As per recently released economic survey , Karnataka State’s Total Fertility Rate falling faster than national trend


WHAT IS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) – Refers to the total number of children born or likely to be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were subject to the prevailing rate of age-specific fertility in the population. TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility.


  • When the country’s TFR was 3.4 in 1992-93, Karnataka’s was 2.65. It further dipped to 1.8 in 2015-16 and 1.7 in 2019-21 signifying that the fertility drop has not levelled off yet, according to observations made in the Karnataka Economic Survey 2021-22
  • With the percentage of registration for both births and deaths increasing across India, the steep fertility decline is consistent
  • Estimated births and gross of infant mortality deaths is stagnating for the last five years, and possibly declining. The total number of deaths in the country is also increasing.
  • In Karnataka, the total number of births is reducing in line with fertility having dropped to 1.7 in 2019-21, and possibly 1.5 by 2030. It is very clear that the number of deaths is increasing quite dramatically. If the estimated births decrease by 1% every year — in 2030, the number of actual births could be 10.2 lakh
  • India’s TFR has plummeted over three decades, and the Indian population is officially below replacement. Global consensus has placed the replacement rate for emerging economies at 2.3, and for the developed world at 2.1
  • India’s latest TFR, according to National Family Health Survey – 5 (NFHS-5), is 2.0, coming under both replacement rates (of emerging economies and developed world), and officially signifying the country’s high population growth trajectory is over and the population will peak soon
  • Karnataka and India is in the stage of reaping from India’s demographic dividend provided we develop a highly skilled and productive workforce and give them employment opportunities to keep the economic momentum going
  • Karnataka’s TFR of 1.7 is closely following the trend in other progressive States, like Kerala, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. The declining TFR is a welcome trend till it reaches the replacement population level
  • Reduction in TFR is largely due to women’s changing roles, expansion of women’s education, employment shifts, such as more women entering salaried jobs, advances in reproductive health, decreasing child mortality and assurance of child survival