Published on: October 20, 2021



What is in news : IMF unveiled its 2nd World Economic Outlook (WEO)

Details :

  • Released twice a year
  • Based on a wide set of assumptions about a host of parameters — such as the international price of crude oil — and set the benchmark for all economies to compare one another with.


  • Global economic recovery momentum had weakened a tad, thanks largely to the pandemic-induced supply disruptions.
  • More than just the marginal headline numbers for global growth, it is the increasing inequality among nations that IMF was most concerned about.
  • Aggregate output for the advanced economy group is expected to regain its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9 per cent in 2024.
  • By contrast, aggregate output for the emerging market and developing economy group (excluding China) is expected to remain 5.5 per cent below the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024, resulting in a larger setback to improvements in their living standards

What does this mean for India

  • India’s growth rate hasn’t been tweaked for the worse
  • Several high-frequency indicators have suggested that India’s economic recovery is gaining ground.
  • On employment — that the recovery in unemployment is lagging the recovery in output (or GDP) — matters immensely for India.
  • According to the data available with the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the total number of employed people in the Indian economy as of May-August 2021 was 394 million — 11 million below the level set in May-August 2019
  • Projections of an employment recovery lagging behind output recovery could mean large swathes of the population being excluded from the GDP growth and its benefits. Lack of adequate employment levels would drag down overall demand and thus stifle India’s growth momentum.